Complexity Levels of Representing Dynamics in EA Planning

Abstract. Enterprise Architecture (EA) models provide information on the fundamental as-is structure of a company or governmental agency and thus serve as an informational basis for informed decisions in enterprise transformation projects. At the same time EA models provide a means to develop and visualize to-be states in the EA planning process. Results of a literature review and implications from industry practices show that existing EA planning processes do not sufficiently cover dynamic aspects in EA planning. This paper conceptualizes seven levels of complexity for structuring EA planning dynamics by a system of interrelated as-is and to-be models. While level 1 represents the lowest complexity with non-connected as-is and to-be models, level 7 covers a multiperiod planning process also taking plan deviations during transformation phases into account. Based on these complexity levels, a multi-stage evolution of EA planning processes is proposed which develops non-dynamic as-is EA modeling into full-scale EA planning

Inter-rater reliability and stability of diagnoses of autism spectrum disorder in children identified through screening at a very young age

To examine the inter-rater reliability and stability of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) diagnoses made at a very early age in children identified through a screening procedure around 14 months of age. In a prospective design, preschoolers were recruited from a screening study for ASD. The inter-rater reliability of the diagnosis of ASD was measured through an independent assessment of a randomly selected subsample of 38 patients by two other psychiatrists. The diagnoses at 23 months and 42 months of 131 patients, based on the clinical assessment and the diagnostic classifications of standardised instruments, were compared to evaluate stability of the diagnosis of ASD. Inter-rater reliability on a diagnosis of ASD versus non-ASD at 23 months was 87% with a weighted κ of 0.74 (SE 0.11). The stability of the different diagnoses in the autism spectrum was 63% for autistic disorder, 54% for pervasive developmental disorder, not otherwise specified (PDD-NOS), and 91% for the whole category of ASD. Most diagnostic changes at 42 months were within the autism spectrum from autistic disorder to PDD-NOS and were mainly due to diminished symptom severity. Children who moved outside the ASD category at 42 months made significantly larger gains in cognitive and language skills than children with a stable ASD diagnosis. In conclusion, the inter-rater reliability and stability of the diagnoses of ASD established at 23 months in this population-based sample of very young children are good

The beginning of time? Evidence for catastrophic drought in Baringo in the early nineteenth century

New developments in the collection of palaeo-data over the past two decades have transformed our understanding of climate and environmental history in eastern Africa. This article utilises instrumental and proxy evidence of historical lake-level fluctuations from Baringo and Bogoria, along with other Rift Valley lakes, to document the timing and magnitude of hydroclimate variability at decadal to century time scales since 1750. These data allow us to construct a record of past climate variation not only for the Baringo basin proper, but also across a sizable portion of central and northern Kenya. This record is then set alongside historical evidence, from oral histories gathered amongst the peoples of northern Kenya and the Rift Valley and from contemporary observations recorded by travellers through the region, to offer a reinterpretation of human activity and its relationship to environmental history in the nineteenth century. The results reveal strong evidence of a catastrophic drought in the early nineteenth century, the effects of which radically alters our historical understanding of the character of settlement, mobility and identity within the Baringo–Bogoria basin

Measurement of the Ge 70 (n,γ) cross section up to 300 keV at the CERN n-TOF facility

©2019 American Physical Society.Neutron capture data on intermediate mass nuclei are of key importance to nucleosynthesis in the weak component of the slow neutron capture processes, which occurs in massive stars. The (n,γ) cross section on Ge70, which is mainly produced in the s process, was measured at the neutron time-of-flight facility n-TOF at CERN. Resonance capture kernels were determined up to 40 keV neutron energy and average cross sections up to 300 keV. Stellar cross sections were calculated from kT=5 keV to kT=100 keV and are in very good agreement with a previous measurement by Walter and Beer (1985) and recent evaluations. Average cross sections are in agreement with Walter and Beer (1985) over most of the neutron energy range covered, while they are systematically smaller for neutron energies above 150 keV. We have calculated isotopic abundances produced in s-process environments in a 25 solar mass star for two initial metallicities (below solar and close to solar). While the low metallicity model reproduces best the solar system germanium isotopic abundances, the close to solar model shows a good global match to solar system abundances in the range of mass numbers A=60-80.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio

Quantum state preparation and macroscopic entanglement in gravitational-wave detectors

Long-baseline laser-interferometer gravitational-wave detectors are operating at a factor of 10 (in amplitude) above the standard quantum limit (SQL) within a broad frequency band. Such a low classical noise budget has already allowed the creation of a controlled 2.7 kg macroscopic oscillator with an effective eigenfrequency of 150 Hz and an occupation number of 200. This result, along with the prospect for further improvements, heralds the new possibility of experimentally probing macroscopic quantum mechanics (MQM) - quantum mechanical behavior of objects in the realm of everyday experience - using gravitational-wave detectors. In this paper, we provide the mathematical foundation for the first step of a MQM experiment: the preparation of a macroscopic test mass into a nearly minimum-Heisenberg-limited Gaussian quantum state, which is possible if the interferometer's classical noise beats the SQL in a broad frequency band. Our formalism, based on Wiener filtering, allows a straightforward conversion from the classical noise budget of a laser interferometer, in terms of noise spectra, into the strategy for quantum state preparation, and the quality of the prepared state. Using this formalism, we consider how Gaussian entanglement can be built among two macroscopic test masses, and the performance of the planned Advanced LIGO interferometers in quantum-state preparation

Searching for a Stochastic Background of Gravitational Waves with LIGO

The Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (LIGO) has performed the fourth science run, S4, with significantly improved interferometer sensitivities with respect to previous runs. Using data acquired during this science run, we place a limit on the amplitude of a stochastic background of gravitational waves. For a frequency independent spectrum, the new limit is $\Omega_{\rm GW} < 6.5 \times 10^{-5}$. This is currently the most sensitive result in the frequency range 51-150 Hz, with a factor of 13 improvement over the previous LIGO result. We discuss complementarity of the new result with other constraints on a stochastic background of gravitational waves, and we investigate implications of the new result for different models of this background.Comment: 37 pages, 16 figure

A Sub-Microscopic Gametocyte Reservoir Can Sustain Malaria Transmission

Novel diagnostic tools, including PCR and high field gradient magnetic fractionation (HFGMF), have improved detection of asexual Plasmodium falciparum parasites and especially infectious gametocytes in human blood. These techniques indicate a significant number of people carry gametocyte densities that fall below the conventional threshold of detection achieved by standard light microscopy (LM).To determine how low-level gametocytemia may affect transmission in present large-scale efforts for P. falciparum control in endemic areas, we developed a refinement of the classical Ross-Macdonald model of malaria transmission by introducing multiple infective compartments to model the potential impact of highly prevalent, low gametocytaemic reservoirs in the population. Models were calibrated using field-based data and several numerical experiments were conducted to assess the effect of high and low gametocytemia on P. falciparum transmission and control. Special consideration was given to the impact of long-lasting insecticide-treated bed nets (LLIN), presently considered the most efficient way to prevent transmission, and particularly LLIN coverage similar to goals targeted by the Roll Back Malaria and Global Fund malaria control campaigns. Our analyses indicate that models which include only moderate-to-high gametocytemia (detectable by LM) predict finite eradication times after LLIN introduction. Models that include a low gametocytemia reservoir (requiring PCR or HFGMF detection) predict much more stable, persistent transmission. Our modeled outcomes result in significantly different estimates for the level and duration of control needed to achieve malaria elimination if submicroscopic gametocytes are included.It will be very important to complement current methods of surveillance with enhanced diagnostic techniques to detect asexual parasites and gametocytes to more accurately plan, monitor and guide malaria control programs aimed at eliminating malaria

Toward an Adaptive Enterprise Modelling Platform

For the past three decades, enterprise modelling (EM) has been emerging as a significant yet complex paradigm to tackle holistic systematic enterprise analysis and design. With a high fluctuation in the global economy, industrial stability and technology shift, the necessity of such paradigms becomes crucial in determining the decisions that an enterprise can make for surviving in such a highly dynamic business ecosystem. EM practices have focused for a long time, on the design-time of enterprise systems. Recently, there has been a rapid development in data analytics, machine learning and intelligent systems from which an EM platform can benefit. EM needs to cope with the new changes in both business and technology; it should also help architects to determine optimum decisions and reduce complexity in technical infrastructure. In this paper, the author discusses several challenges facing enterprise modelling practices and offers an architectural notion for future development focusing on the requirements of a platform that can be called intelligent and adaptive

Play Behavior and Attachment in Toddlers with Autism

Play helps to develop social skills. Children with autism show deviances in their play behavior that may be associated with delays in their social development. In this study, we investigated manipulative, functional and symbolic play behavior of toddlers with and without autism (mean age: 26.45, SD 5.63). The results showed that the quality of interaction between the child and the caregiver was related to the development of play behavior. In particular, security of attachment was related to better play behavior. When the developmental level of the child is taken into account, the attachment relationship of the child with the caregiver at this young age is a better predictor of the level of play behavior than the child's disorder